With Global Investors ditching US Risk... is this asset finally ready for the macro alternative?
Gregory Cowles
Chief Strategy Officer, Co-Founder
This Post is disseminated on behalf of Intellistake Technologies Corp.
So here's the thing about the dollar. When it starts sliding, everyone suddenly becomes a macro expert. Your neighbour's talking about DXY charts. Your barber's got opinions on real yields. And somewhere, someone's drawing lines between the dollar index and Bitcoin like they've cracked some kind of code.
But what's actually happening right now is far more interesting than simple chart correlations.
The "Bye America" Trade is Back
You've probably heard the phrase floating around. "Bye America." Sounds dramatic, right? Like investors are burning flags and moving to Switzerland. But in reality, it's just accounting. It's global investors quietly deciding that holding US risk at current prices isn't quite as attractive as it used to be.
And the numbers tell the story. The dollar index dropped roughly 10% through 2025, marking its worst performance in over 50 years.¹ That's not a blip. That's a shift.
The reasons are varied. Growth concerns. Policy uncertainty. The fact that hedging dollar exposure has become more expensive. But the outcome is the same: money is looking for somewhere else to go.
What This Means for Bitcoin
Here's where it gets interesting. Bitcoin's been catching some of that wind. But before you go thinking there's a simple correlation between a falling dollar and a rising Bitcoin, it's worth slowing down.
Bitcoin doesn't trade the dollar directly. It trades the conditions created by whatever's moving the dollar. Real yields. Hedging costs. How risk gets rationed across portfolios.²
When those inputs line up, Bitcoin can behave like a genuine macro alternative. When they don't, it tends to behave like a high-beta liquidity asset that gets sold when cash becomes scarce. Past performance, of course, is no guarantee of future results.
So which environment are we in right now?
A weaker dollar can loosen financial conditions globally because so much credit and trade is still priced in greenbacks. When the dollar weakens because markets are pricing in easier policy, global risk appetite improves. Bitcoin often benefits as part of that broader risk-on move.
But here's the catch. A weaker dollar can also show up during stress. If the reason is political noise or rate volatility, the same move can arrive with much tighter risk limits. The dollar chart might look "risk on" while portfolios are actually reducing exposure.
And Then Trump Nominated Kevin Warsh
Right. So just when we're trying to read the macro tea leaves, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair.³
Warsh served on the Fed's board from 2006 to 2011 and is generally seen as more hawkish than Powell, favouring tighter monetary policy and a smaller balance sheet.
The market's initial reaction? Bitcoin dropped. The dollar strengthened. Classic risk-off response to the prospect of less liquidity in the system.
But here's where it gets nuanced. Warsh has actually said some fairly constructive things about Bitcoin. In a Hoover Institution interview, he called it a "good policeman for policy," suggesting it can signal when the Fed is mismanaging the economy.⁴
He's invested in crypto companies. He's not hostile to the space.He's also floated the idea of a digital dollar for institutional transactions. Faster settlements. Cheaper payments. Seamless cross-border transfers.⁵
So what does this mean for Bitcoin? On one hand, a Fed chair who treats crypto primarily as technology could be more comfortable modernising payments infrastructure. That often benefits stablecoins, custody, and on-chain settlement — the kind of infrastructure layer we're building at Intellistake. On the other hand, his dollar-first lens isn't exactly aligned with the "Bitcoin as alternative money" story.
So is Bitcoin finally ready to be the macro alternative?
In my view, yes. But only through the right channels. If the wind behind Bitcoin is coming from easing real yields and steady allocation, it could carry further. If it's coming from crowded leverage built on sentiment, it could disappear the moment the story meets a hawkish print or a volatility spike.
Watch the plumbing, not just the headlines. And remember that in this market, the boring signals often matter more than the dramatic ones.
None of this is a prediction, and certainly not advice. Just one person's attempt to make sense of what's happening. As always, do your own research.
Disclaimer
There has been significant volatility in digital assets and their value can decline rapidly, which in turn would lead to a decline in the stock price of companies holding digital assets. Intellistake is a start-up that does not have the same access to capital as other larger more established companies.
Intellistake has just commenced operating its business and is at an early stage of development. Intellistake is entering this space by acquiring and operating blockchain validator hardware that supports AI networks and investing in AI-related digital tokens to primarily operate validator hardware.
Intellistake is reliant on Orbit AI for the financing and technical execution of the planned satellite launches. Intellistake’s involvement is limited to providing the validator and node infrastructure. The amount of any future revenues or benefits that may accrue to Intellistake has not yet been determined.
Intellistake is presently evaluating the regulatory framework for tokenization. Any tokenization will be subject to it being completed in compliance with applicable law, regulatory requirements and terms of any underlying agreements associated with the underlying assets. The actual structure of such tokenization, the assets that would be subject to tokenization, and the associated timeline, have not yet been determined. Intellistake will provide further updates as material developments related to this tokenization strategy occur.
Intellistake is developing custom AI software systems called "AI Agents" for businesses. It recently announced the development of IntelliScope, a newly designed enterprise artificial-intelligence (AI) suite that applies decentralized AI technologies to deliver transparent and verifiable corporate intelligence. IntelliScope, which is in testing, is being publicly introduced as Intellistake's enterprise AI suite, reflecting the Company's focus on advancing practical applications of decentralized AI technologies.
The IntelliScope suite is being developed as a collection of modular AI agents, each intended to address specific enterprise challenges. Development has advanced through internal closed testing, where functionality is being refined and validated. Built to leverage decentralized AI technologies developed within the ASI Alliance FET token ecosystem, IntelliScope is now preparing to move into closed beta testing with an enterprise client, a phase focused on gathering feedback to shape premium features and expand real-world use cases.
The Company intends to deliver these solutions either as one-time projects or ongoing subscription services. Revenue is expected to come from implementation fees and monthly subscription payments. The Company does not presently have any customers. Intellistake is just commencing operations. It is targeting significant growth but its business is subject to several risks related to general business, economic and social uncertainties; the sufficiency of cash to meet liquidity needs; legislative, political and competitive developments; the inherent risks involved in the digital currency and general securities markets; the volatility of digital currency prices and the additional risks identified in the "Risk Factors" section of the Company’s filings with applicable securities regulators. Intellistake has not yet developed or commercialized its AI solutions.
Completion of the Singularity Venture Hub (“SVH”) acquisition remains subject to completion of satisfactory due diligence, the negotiation, and execution of a definitive agreement ("Definitive Agreement") that will include representations, warranties, covenants, indemnities, termination rights, and other provisions customary for a transaction of this nature, no objection from the Canadian Securities Exchange, and shareholder approval of SVH, if required.
This report contains "forward-looking information" concerning anticipated developments and events related to the Company that may occur in the future. Forward looking information contained in this report includes, but is not limited to, all statements in respect of the Company's growth and development, the operations and business segments of the Company, support for decentralized AI and blockchain networks, the details of the collaboration with Orbit AI and its expected benefits; the Company’s contributions towards the collaboration with Orbit AI; the timelines for Orbit AI’s operation; and Intellistake’s strategy to support tokenized, decentralized AI infrastructure.
In certain cases, forward-looking information can be identified by the use of words such as "expects", "intends", "anticipates" or variations of such words and phrases or state that certain actions, events or results "may", "would", or "might" suggesting future outcomes, or other expectations, assumptions, intentions or statements about future events or performance. Forward-looking information contained in this report is based on certain assumptions regarding, among other things, the Company and Singularity Venture Hub (“SVH”) are satisfied with their respective due diligence; the Company and SVH enter into a definitive agreement for the transaction; the Company and SVH satisfy all conditions necessary to close the proposed transaction; the Company will continue to have access to financing until it achieves profitability; the Company is able to raise sufficient financing to complete the announced investment into Orbit AI; obtaining the necessary regulatory approvals; the technology and blockchain industries in which the Company intends to focus its business in will grow at the rate and in the manner expected; the ability to attract qualified personnel; the success of market initiatives and the ability to grow brand awareness; the ability to distribute Company's services; the Company creates strategies to mitigate risks associated with cryptocurrency price fluctuations; the Company and SVH remain compliant with all applicable laws and securities regulations and applicable licensing requirements; the Company engages and collaborates with local experts, as necessary, to address jurisdiction-specific matters and ensures compliance with foreign regulations to avoid penalties; the Company addresses any potential cybersecurity threats promptly and effectively; the ability of the Company to develop its technology, acquire customers and have revenue; the ability to successfully deploy the new business strategy as a result of the change of business. While the Company considers these assumptions to be reasonable, they may be incorrect.
Forward looking information involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results to be materially different from any future results expressed by the forward-looking information. Such factors include risks related to general business, economic and social uncertainties; the Company fails to raise sufficient financing to complete the announced investment into Orbit AI; Orbit AI is unable to raise sufficient financing to complete its launch of satellites on the timelines proposed or at all; technical risks associated with Orbit AI’s planned operations; failure of the Company and SVH enter into a definitive agreement for the transaction; failure of the Company and SVH to satisfy all conditions necessary to close the proposed transaction; failure to raise the capital necessary to fund its operations; inability to create strategies to mitigate the risks associated with cryptocurrency price fluctuations; the costs of regulation in the digital asset industries increase to the extent that the Company is no longer generating sufficient returns for shareholders; failure to promptly and effectively address cybersecurity threats; insufficient resources to maintain its operations on a competitive basis; and the actual costs, timing and future plans differs expectations; legislative, environmental and other judicial, regulatory, political and competitive developments; the inherent risks involved in the cryptocurrency and general securities markets; the Company may not be able to profitably liquidate its current digital currency inventory, or at all; a decline in digital currency prices may have a significant negative impact on the Company's operations; the Company's success may depend on the continued involvement of key personnel, including advisors, whose involvement cannot be guaranteed; institutional adoption of decentralized AI infrastructure remains uncertain and may not occur at the pace or scale anticipated; evolving regulatory frameworks, including those related to AI (such as Canada's proposed Artificial Intelligence and Data Act), may impose additional compliance burdens or restrict certain business activities; valuation figures are based on publicly available market data and internal assessments at the time of the referenced transactions and may not reflect current or future valuations; the volatility of digital currency prices; the inherent uncertainty of cost estimates and the potential for unexpected costs and expenses, currency fluctuations; regulatory restrictions, liability, competition, loss of key employees and other related risks and uncertainties; delay or failure to receive regulatory approvals; failure to attract qualified personnel, labour disputes; and the additional risks identified in the "Risk Factors" section of the Company's filings with applicable Canadian securities regulators.
Although the Company has attempted to identify factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking information, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking information. The forward-looking information is made as of the date of this report. Except as required by applicable securities laws, the Company does not undertake any obligation to publicly update forward-looking information.
